June 30th, 2009
1st Half 2009 Markets Review
Credit (Financial) Depression Averted
Economic Recession Easing
Key Points
- First Half 2009 Total Returns
S&P 500 (919) 3%
US 10 Yr Bond (3.52%) -20%
NASDAQ (1835) 17%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks 2%
- U.S. GDP expected contraction -2.6%
- 2009 earnings expected decline -14%
- Stock markets likely hit bottom in March,
as the economic recession eased
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June 24th, 2009
Section V. Personal Risk Reduction Processes
Chapter 10. Recognizing Personal Behavioral Biases
And Risk Tolerances
Key Points
- Risk tolerances vary with circumstances
- Align wealth goals with risk tolerance
- Measure biases: mainly at transaction time
- Improvement aides; checklists and habits
- Written transaction analysis; develop
process to correct poor personal biases
Chapter 11. Improving Rational Biases
Key Points
- Identify short cuts and impacts
- Distinguish rational from emotional adjustments
- Overcome biases with specific corrections
- Develop a rational portfolio management process
- Monitor results and respond per a plan
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May 31st, 2009
May Markets Review
Case for optimism or caution?
Positive surprises continue
Key Points
- 2009 Year To Date Total Returns
S&P 500 (919) 3%
US 10 Yr Bond (3.46%) -21%
NASDAQ (1744) 13%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks 5%
- US GDP expected contraction = -2.6%
- 2009 earnings expected decline = -14%
- Stock markets have hit bottom as
the economy approaches a low point
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May 3rd, 2009
April Markets Review
Is the market’s upturn real?
Will positive surprises continue?
Key Points
- 2009 year to date Total Returns
S&P 500 (872) -2%
US 10 Yr Bond (3.12%) -18%
NASDAQ (1717) +9%
Foreign (EAFE) -8%
- U.S. GDP expected contraction = -2.6%
- 2009 earnings expected decline = -14%
- Markets may have hit bottom, but
economy has not reached its low point
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May 1st, 2009
Section IV. Investment Risk Categories
Chapter 7 Fundamentals
Operating Risks & Uncertainties
Key Points
- Asset classes - unique operating risk profiles
- Business models - constructs to evaluate
asset operations
- General & specific factors - asset quantitative
risk insights
- Asset class - operating risk & return checklist
Chapter 8
Market Transaction Risks
Key Points
- Economic Basics - supply and demand risks
- Historic asset price data provides factual insights
- Market emotions increase transaction risks
- Agents - supporting transaction actors are not free
- Benchmarks are needed for score keeping
Chapter 9
Data Risk or Information Content?
Key Points
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April 2nd, 2009
First Quarter Markets Review
A Wild Ride
Recession Remains in Full Force
Key Points
- First Quarter 2009 Total Returns
S&P 500 (797) -11%
US 10 Yr Bond (2.68%) -11%
NASDAQ (1528) -3%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -16%
- U.S. GDP expected contraction = -2.2%
- 2009 earnings expected decline = -20%
- Significant 1st Qtr losses; Markets &
economy continue to search for bottom
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March 22nd, 2009
Lifetime Wealth Flows Guide
Section III Wealth Foundation & Factors
Chapter 5 Wealth Goals & Objectives
Key Points
- Wealth goals signfiy values
- Objectives are based on goal statements
- Grasp link between risks and objectives
- Wealth distribution or growth objectives?
Chapter 6 Wealth Flow Factors
Key Points - Significant 7 Wealth Factors
- Household time horizon (longevity)
- Retirement spending (withdrawal rate)
- Risk tolerance (portfolio volatility)
- Investment returns (portfolio volatility)
- Gift commitments (sharing with others)
- Inflation (political policy)
- Taxes (manage efficiently)
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March 2nd, 2009
February 2009 Markets Review
Economic & Market Uncertainties Continue
Key Points
- Year to date Total Returns
S&P 500 (735) -18%
US 10 Yr Bond (3.04%) -13%
NASDAQ (1378) -12%
Foreign (EAFE) Stocks -23%
- U.S. GDP expected contraction = -1.2%
- 2009 earnings expected decline = -12%
- Large year to date losses; First Half 2009
partial recovery uncertain
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February 19th, 2009
Nature of Risk
Lifetime Wealth Guide
Draft Chapter 3 Evolution of Risk Taking
Key Points
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February 13th, 2009
Nature of Risk
Lifetime Wealth Guide
Draft Chapter 4 Behavior Biases
Key Points
- Attitudes and tendencies shape behavior risks
- Emotional, cognitive, & agent negative biases
- Moral, psychological, and physiological basis
- Humility, Prudence, Risk Control, Perseverance
positive responses to limit behavior risks
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